Jarvis

# Weekly Flight Log — Paper Allocation Bot **Period:** 29 Jun – 6 Jul 2026 (7 days) · 30 runs, 28 with decisions *Paper trading only. No live money. FX from HKD is a paper approximation.* --- ## Posture & performance (per sleeve, vs its mandate) Think of this like two crews flying the same weather with different rulebooks. **Conservative sleeve** — mandate: steady compounding, capital protection, act mostly when a strategy signal corroborates. - Currently holds just **two positions**: SPY (+$15.81) and VOO (+$19.98). Both small gains, both trending up. - This was a *quiet, disciplined* week. Of its decisions, **277 were HOLD**, 55 OPEN, 4 ADD. It repeatedly declined to chase weak or conflicting setups — exactly what the mandate asks. **Aggressive sleeve** — mandate: opportunistic return-seeking, tighter cap, permitted to self-initiate. - Holds **GLD** (−$17.22), **QQQ** (−$33.88), **SPY** (+$21.63), **VOO** (+$28.75), and a **1-share stub of XLE** (−$0.31). - Busier: **256 HOLD, 46 OPEN, 18 CLOSE, 9 ADD, 7 TRIM**. The story of the week was **cleaning up a losing XLE position** and repeatedly *wanting* to deploy into DIA/EFA but being blocked by **near-zero (at times negative) cash**. **Reality check on "performance":** with unrealised P&L in the ±$30 range on ~$15k positions, nothing here has meaningfully moved. This was a **positioning week, not a profit week.** Don't read the tiny green/red numbers as skill or failure — they're noise. --- ## What was decided, and why **The recurring theme across both sleeves:** a small cluster of instruments carried genuine BUY signals — **DIA** (breakout, low ~13% volatility), **EFA** (momentum, international diversifier), **TLT** (breakout, bond ballast), **IWM**, **NANC**, **GOP** — and the bot kept trying to enter these. **Conservative** opened small, corroborated positions in DIA and EFA, sized *down* because DIA correlates highly with the SPY/VOO it already owns (0.82), and EFA's recent return was near-flat (+0.2%). It **passed on every no-signal name** and on **GLD** repeatedly (MACD said buy, but price was down −7.3% — signal fighting the trend, so it waited). **Aggressive** did the more interesting work: - **Closed XLE** many times over — no signal, −9.4% 20-day return, deteriorating. Correct housekeeping: stop paying rent on a dead position. - Earlier in the week it had *added* to XLE on an RSI-reversion signal, then reversed course as that signal vanished. That's a coherent arc, not a flip-flop: it acted on a signal, the signal died, it exited. - **Wanted DIA and EFA** repeatedly but was **cash-constrained** — flagged them "for next rebalance." This is the honest bottleneck of the week. --- ## Self-initiated vs corroborated — is the AI's own judgment earning its keep? This is the section you're really evaluating, Captain. - **Aggressive self-initiated: 0.** Every aggressive action this week was backed by a strategy signal. The sleeve *allowed* to freelance chose not to. - **Conservative self-initiated: 1** — a single **TLT** open (conviction 0.40), justified purely on low volatility (8.69%) and bond-like character, with *no* signal. Notably, the bot itself flagged the low conviction *because* there was no signal — and shortly after, a real breakout BUY signal on TLT appeared and it re-entered at higher conviction (0.70). **My read:** the AI's independent judgment is being used **sparingly and cautiously**, which is what you want early on. That one self-initiated TLT call was *directionally vindicated* by a signal arriving right behind it. There isn't enough evidence yet to say self-initiation "earns its keep" — but there's also **no evidence of reckless freelancing**. So far the discipline is real, not decorative. --- ## What I'm watching / uncertain about - **GLD is the nagging one.** Aggressive holds 41 shares; it keeps citing a MACD BUY signal while price is down ~7–11% over 20 days. The bot is *holding through* the drawdown on signal faith. Conservative, facing the same data, refuses to touch it. **Same evidence, opposite conclusions by mandate — that's the design working, but GLD is where it could bite.** - **QQQ** is the largest unrealised loss (−$33.88) with no active signal — held under "aggressive tolerates drawdown." Fine for now; worth watching it doesn't become a comfortable excuse. - **DIA/EFA deferred for cash.** The bot found good setups it couldn't fund. If those are genuinely good, we're leaving return on the table because the sleeve is over-deployed. --- ## Capital deployed vs idle - **Conservative:** ~$25k deployed across SPY + VOO. Deliberately holding dry powder