J

Jarvis

paper trading · supervised weekly
armed · all systems go

Latest decision 09 Oct, 06:03

Conservative sleeve: HOLDing all five existing positions (EFA, GOP, NANC, TLT, VOO) while OPENing new positions in SPY, QQQ, GLD, and XLE where corroboration (>=2 strategies) and diversification rationale are present; DIA and EEM do not merit new openings given signal flips or minimum-corroboration-only situations. Aggressive sleeve: nearly fully deployed with minimal cash, so decisions are primarily HOLDs on existing positions; ADD conviction applied to QQQ (strongest momentum, profitable) and XLE (fresh signal flip to BUY, negative correlation, profitable). Signal flips in IWM, DIA, and XLE are acknowledged — XLE flip is positive (sma_crossover BUY), while IWM and DIA flips are treated cautiously with HOLD rather than ADD.
SleeveSymbolActionConvictionOriginWhy
aggressive QQQ ADD 0.85 corroborated Five strategies LONG, strongest 20d return (+5.5%) in the universe, and meaningful unrealised profit ($300); best momentum candidate for aggressive sleeve addition.
aggressive XLE ADD 0.75 corroborated Fresh sma_crossover BUY signal joining three existing LONG strategies, negative correlation (-0.32) hedges book, upward trend, and existing position is profitable; aggressive sleeve warrants adding.
aggressive DIA HOLD 0.50 corroborated Signal flip flagged and only 2/7 strategies long with -1.7% 20d return; hold existing small position but do not add given weak momentum.
aggressive EEM HOLD 0.55 corroborated Two strategies long with downward trend and largest unrealised loss (-$214); aggressive sleeve can tolerate drawdown but adding into continued weakness is unwarranted.
aggressive EFA HOLD 0.60 corroborated Three strategies LONG but -2.8% 20d return and small unrealised loss; hold without adding until trend stabilises.
aggressive GLD HOLD 0.60 corroborated Five strategies LONG with good diversification value (0.35 correlation) but -4.5% 20d return and existing loss; hold without adding in a deteriorating trend.
aggressive GOP HOLD 0.70 corroborated Five strategies LONG with +1.8% 20d return; position slightly underwater but multi-strategy consensus intact, hold without adding given near-zero cash.
aggressive IWM HOLD 0.60 corroborated Signal flip noted but three strategies remain LONG; -3.5% 20d return is a headwind so hold rather than add while trend resolves.
aggressive NANC HOLD 0.80 corroborated Five strategies LONG with +3.9% 20d return and positive P&L; strong consensus endorses holding, aggressive sleeve already well-positioned.
aggressive SPY HOLD 0.80 corroborated Four strategies HOLD-LONG with +2.1% 20d return; position slightly underwater but broad-market trend is intact and aggressive sleeve warrants holding through minor drawdowns.
aggressive TLT HOLD 0.65 corroborated Three strategies LONG and low correlation (0.32) provides portfolio hedge; small loss position worth holding as bollinger+momentum+rsi_reversion remain constructive.
aggressive VOO HOLD 0.75 corroborated Five strategies LONG with +2.1% 20d return; slight unrealised loss but momentum is positive and aggressive sleeve should maintain exposure.
conservative GLD OPEN 0.60 corroborated Five strategies long (5/7 participation) satisfies corroboration; low 0.40 correlation adds diversification though -4.5% 20d return limits conviction.
conservative QQQ OPEN 0.70 corroborated Five strategies long with strong +5.5% 20d return and broad participation (5/7) satisfies corroboration, though higher volatility (18.49%) warrants modest sizing versus SPY.
conservative SPY OPEN 0.80 corroborated Four strategies in unanimous HOLD-LONG with strong momentum (+2.1% 20d return) and broad participation (4/7) meets the conservative sleeve's >=2 strategy corroboration requirement.
conservative XLE OPEN 0.65 corroborated Four strategies LONG including fresh sma_crossover BUY; negative correlation (-0.34) to book provides valuable diversification and upward 20d trend (+0.5%) supports entry.
conservative DIA HOLD 0.50 corroborated Signal flip flagged and only 2/7 strategies long with -1.7% 20d return; minimum corroboration met but downward trend argues against adding in conservative sleeve.
conservative EEM HOLD 0.50 corroborated Only 2/7 strategies long with downward trend and elevated volatility (22.87%); conservative mandate precludes opening new position with minimum corroboration and negative momentum.
conservative EFA HOLD 0.60 corroborated Three strategies remain LONG and the position is near breakeven; hold while -2.8% 20d return resolves, consistent with capital preservation mandate.
conservative GOP HOLD 0.75 corroborated Five strategies LONG with +1.8% 20d return and near-flat unrealised P&L; solid multi-strategy consensus supports holding.
conservative IWM HOLD 0.60 corroborated Signal flip noted but three strategies remain LONG; -3.5% 20d return is a headwind so hold existing exposure without adding given conservative mandate.
conservative NANC HOLD 0.80 corroborated Five strategies in HOLD-LONG with +3.9% 20d return and positive unrealised P&L; strong standing endorsement warrants maintaining position.
conservative TLT HOLD 0.65 corroborated Three strategies LONG and low correlation (0.39) provides diversification; despite -3.6% 20d return the bollinger+momentum+rsi_reversion combination justifies holding the existing position.
conservative VOO HOLD 0.80 corroborated Five strategies LONG with +2.1% 20d return; highly correlated to SPY so hold existing rather than doubling broad market exposure.

Sleeves · the envelope 2

Aggressive sleeve
50% of fund · ~499,920 HKD
Max position40%
Max exposure100%
SizingCONVICTION
Self-initiationcap 15%
Realised P&L+2,102.91 (384)
Conservative sleeve
50% of fund · ~499,920 HKD
Max position20%
Max exposure80%
SizingVOL_TARGET
Self-initiationneeds backup
Realised P&L+276.50 (170)

Eligibility · which names each sleeve may hold 12

in DIA conservative in EFA conservative in GOP conservative in IWM conservative in NANC conservative in QQQ conservative in SPY conservative in TLT conservative in VOO conservative in XLE conservative out EEM conservative out GLD conservative
Hover a name for the reason. Conservative admits calm names plus low-correlation diversifiers; the rest are excluded this regime.

Decision gate · recent runs last 12

10 Oct, 06:01 no material change
10 Oct, 00:01 no material change
09 Oct, 18:01 no material change
09 Oct, 12:01 no material change
09 Oct, 06:03 decided — signal flip: IWM changed direction, signal flip: DIA changed direction
09 Oct, 00:01 no material change
08 Oct, 18:01 no material change
08 Oct, 12:01 no material change
08 Oct, 06:02 decided — signal flip: EFA changed direction, signal flip: EEM changed direction
08 Oct, 00:02 no material change
07 Oct, 18:01 no material change
07 Oct, 12:01 no material change
The gate only spends on a paid Claude decision when a strategy signal flips, positions drift, or the daily backstop fires — so most runs cost nothing.